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Global Macro Weekly

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Each week: what the major central banks decided, how jobs and inflation data came in vs. expectations, and how FX and asset prices moved in response — all tied together in one analytical read.

Mon at 8:00 AM

Global Macro Weekly05/25/2026, 08:06:00 AM

PCE and the Warsh Test: Week of May 26–30, 2026

FOMC minutes confirmed a hawkish shift, Governor Waller removed his easing bias in Frankfurt, and April PCE arrives Thursday as Warsh's first major inflation test. ECB at 86% probability of a June hike, BoJ near 80%; the RBA pauses after a jobs miss. Brent eases toward $99 on Iran deal optimism as markets brace for a data-heavy, holiday-shortened week.

Global Macro Weekly05/23/2026, 12:33:07 PM

Oil, Yields, and a New Fed Chair: Week of May 19–23, 2026

Brent crude swung from $112 to $102 and back to $105, pulling Treasuries, FX, and equities with it. The FOMC minutes confirmed a hawkish shift, Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair, UK and European PMIs slipped into contraction, and Japan's soft April CPI clouded BoJ hike timing — all while markets start pricing a Fed rate increase by year-end.

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